‘Mockingjay Part 2’ Swoops Down To $104.3M, Lowest In ‘Hunger Games’ Series, But Still Solid Biz – Late Night B.O.

 
 Lionsgate’s The Hunger Games: Mockingjay-Part 2 is falling below its weekend projections with a $47M opening day and a projected $104.3M weekend.
Before anyone screams sequelitis and depreciating ticket sales, it’s possible that the fourth film, which carries an estimated combined budget and P&A cost of $215M stateside, could profit off of theatrical just like MJ1, before Lionsgate counts TV and home entertainment dollars and costs. I understand that foreign pre-sales on MJ2 are a little higher than MJ1‘s $130M, and that number combined with a similar rental to MJ1‘s $162M (off a $337.1M cume) would get MJ2 into the black during its theatrical release with a profit that’s at $85M. Like MJ1, MJ2 on Friday night earned an A- Cinemascore. That grade generated a 2.8 multiple off MJ1’s $121.9M opening for a final $337M domestic B.O. Lionsgate was able to keep MJ1 in 2,500-plus theaters through Christmas and New Year’s, and the anticipation is that Katniss will be one of the few November releases hanging in there when Star Wars: The Force Awakens opens.
MJ1 carried a combined $190M production budget and P&A spend. When factored against the film’s combined rental and foreign presales, MJ1 turned a $102M profit before TV/home entertainment revenues and costs which raised its profit north of $211M. The final film directed by Francis Lawrence earned a 70% Rotten Tomatoes score, which is a little higher than MJ1’s 65% score.


So why have grosses continued to slide from Catching Fire thru MJ2? While females have stayed strong at 60% over the last two titles, I’m told that the under/over 25 split on Catching Fire got older with 61% over 25 turning up for MJ1. MJ2 has a 25+ draw in the mid-50 percentile. As the demos shift, not all the adults come out on opening weekend like the young girls. They’ll head to the theater when it’s convenient or they’ll wait to watch it at home. 62% came out Friday night because they’re fans, while 28% showed up for Jennifer Lawrence, a figure that’s consistent with her pull on other Hunger Games films.
Sony’s Spectre and 20th Century Fox’s The Peanuts Movie are holding off any newcomers, planting their feet in spots 2 and 3 respectively. Spectre is looking at a third weekend of $14.6M, off 57% for a cume by Sunday of $153.6M. Peanuts is set to collect $13.1M per industry estimates, down 45% in its third frame for a total cume of $98.6M. Matinees tomorrow, which some expect to jump 105% over Friday, would p ut it in the $100M-plus category.
Among newcomers, Sony’s Seth Rogen R-rated comedy The Night Before  made $3.8M Friday with a weekend that’s heading toward $10.7M. It earned an A- CinemaScore tonight, and that coupled with some fairly decent reviews at 65% rotten, could turn this holiday comedy into a sleeper, possibly in the vein of Bad Santa which opened to $12.3M and made 4.9X its opening for $60M final B.O. off a $23M budget. Night Before cost an estimated $25M, not to mention on TV and in home entertainment, and these films are perennials. One analyst marveled how Rogen’s B.O. multiples can get up to the 3x-5x range. Typically he brings in over 60% males, but Night Before drew some more females this time, so guys are in the mid 50%. Rogen’s sweet spot is the 18-24 crowd, and Night Before pulled in 44% of that demo. Christmas-theme movies typically launch during the first or second weekend of November. The Night Before couldn’t go last weekend as it would have rubbed up against Love The Coopers (which is down 53% in its second FSS with $3.9M in No. 6 with $14.9M), even though they’re geared toward different crowds: Night Before for older guys, Coopers for older women.
STX/IM Global’s The Secret In Their Eyes is looking at a $2.5M Friday and a $7.5M weekend, toward the lower end of its projections. No amount of star power, even the pairing of Nicole Kidman and Julia Roberts, will open moviegoers’ eyes to the Secret In Their Eyes. The film is stigmatized by a top critics score of 29% rotten and a B- CinemaScore, meaning it’s going to get trounced in this bloodletting holiday adult market. Older women repped the majority of those sitting in seats with 60% females: 40% over 50, 70% over 35. Over 60% bought tickets to The Secret in Their Eyes because it starred Roberts and Kidman, and when the stars are the primary reason, it means grosses are frontloaded. All of the fans come out in weekend 1. The remake of the 2009 Oscar foreign language film winner was made for $19.5M. IM sold off foreign, limiting its exposure, with Universal possessing a number of the key territories which are scheduled to open next year.
Open Road’s Spotlight cracked the top 10 in its expansion from 61 to 598 venues in its third weekend. It made an estimated $935K tonight and should take in a FSS of $3.2M in the No. 8 spot. That’s a $5,400 weekend PTA, which I’m told is solid. Had it posted a $7,500 PTA, it would be considered a notable crossover from arthouse to commercial theaters, but anything less than $5K wouldn’t be good for this newsroom drama.
On the specialty side, Weinstein Co.’s 1950s lesbian love story Carol, which earned Rooney Mara a best actress award at the Cannes Film Festival, is drawing lines around the block at the arthouses. Per screen is a powerful $62K on course for a $249K weekend at four New York and Los Angeles locations. Carol‘s opening PTA is the third highest for 2015 after Steve Jobs’ $130K and Sicario‘s $67K.  
Remember By The Sea, that movie  starring Angelina Jolie and Brad Pitt? Well, it’s in its second weekend with an increased theatrical run of 126. It made $55K tonight, +45% from when it was playing in 10 theaters last Friday. Weekend should come in at $196K, +103% with an estimated cume of $323K.  Not enough mojo here to keep this alive among specialty crowds.
Legend, Universal’s British gangster film about the Krays, made $24K on Friday on its way to $79K this weekend at four NYC and LA venues. That’s a $20K PTA and for it to be considered an arthouse knockout business wise, $35K-$50K is what it should be doing. It has a 54% Rotten Tomatoes score among top critics which is middling and likely keeping moviegoers at bay. A pity, because Tom Hardy just escapes into both roles on screen. Legend cost $25M and has raked in $36M overseas from 26 markets with 78% of that figure coming from its U.K. release. Legend originally was slated to open on Oct. 2, however, Uni opted for a platform release beginning this weekend with expansions on Wednesday and Dec. 11.
The top 10 films and notables per industry estimates as of 11:43PM Friday by Deadline’s Amanda N’Duka:
1). The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2 (LGF), 4,175 theaters / $47M Fri. */ 3-day cume: $104.3M /Wk 1
*includes $16M in previews
2). Spectre (SONY), 3,659 theaters (-270)/ $4.3M Fri. (-57%) /3-day cume: $14.6M (-57%)/ Total cume: $153.6M /Wk 3
3). The Peanuts Movie (FOX), 3,671 theaters (-231)/ $2.9M Fri. (-47%)/3-day cume: $13.1M (-45%)/Total cume: $98.6M /Wk 3
4). The Night Before (SONY), 2,960, theaters / $3.8M Fri. **/ 3-day cume: $10.7M /Wk 1
**includes $550K in previews
5). Secret in Their Eyes (STX), 2,392, theaters / $2.5M Fri. +/ 3-day cume: $7.5M /Wk 1
+includes $170K previews
6). Love The Coopers (LGF), 2,603 theaters (0)/ $1.2M Fri. (-58%) / 3-day cume: $3.9M (-53%) /Total cume: $14.9M /Wk 2
7). The Martian (FOX), 2,086 theaters (-702) / $1.1M Fri. (-44%)/ 3-day cume: $3.7M (-44%)/ Total cume: $212.6M / Wk 8
8). Spotlight (OPRD), 598 theaters (+538) / $935K Fri. (+139%)/3-day cume: $3.2M (+138%) / Total cume: $5.5M /Wk 3
9). The 33 (WB), 2,452 theaters (0)/ $735K Fri. (-60%) / 3-day cume: $2.3M  (-60%) /Total cume: $10M /Wk 2
10). Bridge Of Spies (DIS), 1,532 theaters (-1,156) / $625K Fri. (-51%)/3-day cume: $2.1M (-50%)/Total cume: $65.4M /Wk 6
Notables:
Guerre Des Tuques 3D (eONE), 76 theaters (0) / $188K Fri. (-8%)/ 3-day cume: $610K (-9%)/Total cume: $1.6M /Wk 2
Prem Ratan Dhan Payo (FIP), 283 theaters (-4)/ $160K Fri. (-77%)/ 3-day cume: $565K (-77%) / Total cume: $3.9M /Wk 2
My All American (AVI), 1,314 theaters (-251)/ $130K Fri. (-75%)/ 3-day cume: $398K (-71%) / Total cume: $2.2M /Wk 2
Carol (TWC), 4 theaters / $78K Fri. / 3-day cume: $249K /Per screen: $62K /Wk 1
Our Times (ASIA), 31 theaters / $70K Fri. / 3-day cume: $219K / /Wk 1
By The Sea (UNI), 126 theaters (+116)/ $55K Fri. (+44%) / 3-day cume: $196K (+103%) /Total Cume: $323K /Wk 2
Legend (UNI), 4 theaters / $24K Fri. / 3-day cume: $79K / Per screen: $20K /Wk 1
2ND UPDATE, 12:30 PM: Mid-day estimates show Lionsgate’s The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2 with an opening day between $47 million-$49 millin at 4,175 theaters, on track for a weekend that’s between $104M-$110M. As typical with these early figures, they’re bound to improve by evening.
Even though the pic is on track to be the lowest opening for the franchise, there isn’t a distributor out there who would gripe about a triple-digit weekend. Many of those who we’ve spoken with commend a mini-major like Lionsgate for clinging to this prized pre-Thanksgiving date for the franchise over the last three films; that this frame, over any other in the rest of the year, is prime for Katniss. Summit with the third Twilight Saga: Eclipse, played that film during July, going for a five-day record of $157.5M.
Should Lionsgate have emulated a similar release by putting Mockingjay in the summer? The answer is largely “no,” because then the film would have to deal with a competition from other franchise films and animated family pics. Some also believe there’s a slight slowdown at the box office that’s impacting all movies — seen recently in industry estimates pegging Spectre to an $80M debut, and it wound up posting $70.4M. And just because that opening was off from the 007 Skyfall record of $88.4M, doesn’t mean that the film tanked: It’s the second-highest-opening all time for the franchise.
Rentrak’s PostTrak reports that those shelling out for Mockingjay 2 are mostly young females at 63%, with 52% under 25.  Note this demo is coming out in full force tonight, and as is the tendency that will ease on Saturday and more on Sunday. So, today will likely be MJ2‘s highest-grossing day. The biggest concentration of moviegoers are between the ages of 18-24 at 37%. Currently, there’s a massive 71% recommend for the film, with 34% saying they went because they are fans of the franchise.
Sony/MGM/Eon’s Spectre, which currently counts $139.1M through two weeks, will see a third frame that’s down 50% for $16.8M and a running cume by Sunday of $155.9M. Some even think it could dip 45%, which is fantastic in the face of a big girl like Katniss.
In third, 20th Century Fox’s The Peanuts Movie is looking at $13M-$14M in its third session. It could come close to crossing $100M by Sunday.
Sony’s R-rated comedy The Night Before is currently eyeing an opening today that’s between $4.5M-$5.5M, with a FSS between $12M-$14M. STX/IM Global’s Secret In Their Eyes is looking at $2M-$3M today for a $6M-$8M take, which is in the range of what the distributor was expecting.
PREVIOUS, 7:52 AM: Lionsgate’s The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2 started its box office chorus last night firing up $16 million in previews, a number that’s $1M shy of last year’s Thursday preview of Mockingjay – Part 1 which made $17M. Among the franchise’s Thursday pre-openings, Catching Fire is the best with $25.25M from shows starting at 8 PM. Current global B.O. for the last installment is at $43M.
The Francis Lawrence-helmed film, his third out of four in the series, is currently No. 1 in 66 of 68 markets with 19 more territories debuting today. Mockingjay – Part 2 moves to 4,175 stateside venues today and 33,000 worldwide.
Last year, Mockingjay – Part 1 generated an opening day of $55.1M before posting an opening of $121.9M, and many predict that the final hurrah will fly just under those numbers with an opening weekend of $115M-$120M stateside. Unlike last year, Mockingjay – Part 2 has some help from Imax theaters. The current estimated production cost for Mockingjay – Part 2 is $160M, which is 14% higher than the last chapter and 23% higher than Catching Fire. Not counting foreign theatrical and home entertainment which is pre-sold, Lionsgate made $211.6M profit off of Mockingjay – Part 1 as reported by Deadline.
Lionsgate originally debuted the feature adaptation of Suzanne Collins’ YA novel in March 2012 where it opened to $152.5M in the U.S. and Canada, but then moved it to November with 2013’s Catching Fire. In that new pre-Thanksgiving slot, the franchise hit all of its B.O. records with best domestic opening day ($70.95M), weekend ($158.1M), domestic cume ($424.7M) and global haul ($865M).
Mockingjay – Part 2 flapped her wings so loudly, she took all the wind out of the other two openers’ sails on Thursday night. Sony’s holiday comedy The Night Before starring Seth Rogen, Anthony Mackie and Joseph Gordon-Levitt settled for a low $550K at 2,410 locations from shows starting at 7 PM. STX/IM Global’s remake of Argentinian Foreign Language Oscar winner Secret iTn Their Eyes only drew $170K at 1,470; it expands to 2,392 today.
The Night Before carries an estimated production cost of $25M, while Secret In Their Eyes is $19.5M, the latter fully backed by IM Global. Night Before is expected to bring in $8M-$10M, while Secret In Their Eyes is hoping for $7M-$9M.
Similar to last night’s preview figures, tracking as of yesterday showed Mockingjay – Part 2 hogging up the first-choice column across four quads, and also towering over Night Before and Secret In Their Eyes which posted first choice figures in the single digits. First choice for the latest chapter of Hunger Games is highest among the under 25 set in women (46%) and men (43%), followed by the over 25 set with women (34%) and men (33%).